Stryker Brigade News

Recent Trends in Iraq

Nov- 9-2007 » Filed Under: Iraq News

Bill Ardolino at The Long War Journal takes a close look at the reduction in violence recently in Iraq to determine its causes. Excerpt:

As violence in Iraq has decreased significantly over the last two months, analysts attempt to identify the forces behind the trend. Some attribute the reduction to a reinvigorated US strategy of counterinsurgency and the “surge” of combat troops which commenced in February, while critics of US strategy cite the exodus of Iraqi refugees and successful sectarian partition and cleansing as primary factors.

The drop began in September, as civilian deaths (884) fell 52 percent from August and 77 percent year-over-year, while military deaths (65) fell 23 percent and 10 percent over the same periods. October’s declines made it a trend: Civilian deaths (758) dropped an additional 12 percent from the previous month and 38 percent year-over-year, while US military deaths (38) dropped 42 percent and 64 percent during the same periods.

"Is it the surge, is it just dumb luck, or are there a series of factors that all contribute towards the lessening violence in Iraq?" asked General Terry Wolff, the Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Iraq and Afghanistan Policy Implementation on the National Security Council, in a conference call last Friday. Wolff and other senior military and intelligence officials offered a list of "complementary" factors theorized to have reduced the violence in interviews with The Long War Journal.